For nearly two weeks, people across Cape Cod have been watching the weather with the danger of wildfires in mind.

Since Oct. 26, a National Weather Service red flag warning indicating an “increased risk of fire danger” due to warm temperatures, very low humidity, and strong winds has been in effect across most of southern New England. After being lifted briefly on Halloween, the warning was reinstated on Nov.1. Two days later, it was lowered to a special weather statement indicating “elevated fire weather concerns.”

This is only the second November red flag warning in southern New England since 2006.

The warnings coincided with many fires across the state. According to the Associated Press, Massachusetts averages 15 wildfires in October. This year, there were 203. And between Oct. 27 and Nov. 3, the Mass. Dept. of Conservation and Recreation reported 87 wildfires. Two of them, a 188-acre fire in Middleton and a 140-acre fire in Salem, are still not contained.

Connecticut had 126 active wildfires as of Nov. 4, some of which Richard Schenk, a fire control officer for that state’s Dept. of Energy and Environmental Protection, said may keep burning into 2025.

On Cape Cod, we have mostly been spared wildfires, save for a brief blaze on Joint Base Cape Cop in Bourne on Oct. 26. But that doesn’t mean that a larger fire could never happen here, said David Crary Jr., retired fire management officer for the Cape Cod National Seashore.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, nearly all of New England is experiencing “abnormally dry” or “moderate drought” conditions.

Cape Cod and the Islands are among a few areas that are not currently in significant drought. But according to meteorologist Phil Burt, who runs the website Cape Cod Weather, the fall has still been notably dry.

The only significant rain, Burt said, came from a mid-September storm that delivered nearly a foot to parts of the Cape. That, paired with a spring that has been wetter than the past few dry years, has helped keep wildfires at bay, he said.

“Had the dryness of the last few years continued through this past spring and summer, this fall would be a much scarier situation,” said Burt.

According to Truro Fire Chief Timothy Collins, these warnings mean that homeowners should avoid fires and exercise extreme caution when using spark-generating equipment. He also advises homeowners to clear vegetation areas around their houses to establish buffer zones.

Seeking Fire Expertise

Some aspects of Cape Cod’s environment make it prone to fire, Crary said. Many of our dominant plant species, like pitch pine and huckleberry, burn hot. There is a lot of fuel available here, and — as the Independent reported last fall — a lot of forest that is difficult for Park Service personnel to get to.

Cape Cod does experience some natural fire suppression — Crary said that lightning strikes without heavy precipitation are rare here, and Collins pointed out that the Cape is relatively humid — but the risk is still there. According to the Barnstable County Wildfire Preparedness Plan from 2012, areas with high risk of wildfire encompass 66 percent of Truro, 64 percent of Wellfleet, 41 percent of Eastham, and 19 percent of Provincetown.

In each town, small pockets are also listed under “extreme risk,” including Boat Meadow in Eastham, Old Wharf Point in Wellfleet, and the area around Knowles Heights Road in Truro.

During Crary’s time at the Seashore, from 1985 to 2021, he estimates that he completed about 400 controlled burns to mitigate fuel loads. But since his retirement in 2021, the National Seashore has not done any prescribed burns.

The Seashore has been trying to hire an assistant fire management officer since the spring and will re-advertise the position soon, as they have had no successful applicants, according to Deputy Supt. Leslie Reynolds. She attributed the hiring difficulty to the cost of living here.

In the meantime, according to Susan Reece, the Park’s chief of interpretation, education, and cultural resources, they are focusing on creating “defensible space areas” around structures by manually removing vegetation and enacting a complete suppression regime for all natural fires.

Crary said that wildland fires are not inherently a bad thing. “They’re part of the cycle,” he said, removing dead brush and opening up the forest. But with houses built in the forests of the Outer Cape, Crary said, natural fires can easily turn dangerous.

According to John Vaillant, a Massachusetts native and environmental journalist who wrote the Pulitzer Prize-finalist book Fire Weather: The Making of a Beast about the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire in Alberta, people historically practiced “pyro-hygiene” — establishing buffers near their homes by putting pastures or fire breaks around them. Now, “people have returned to the forest,” he said, “but they sort of forgot about the fire.”

Climate and Fire Risk

Crary estimates that, each decade, there are probably 10 to 20 days where the Cape is at risk of a truly destructive fast-moving wildfire. These days typically happen in the spring or fall, Crary said, and always feature high temperatures, low humidity, and high winds.

The last severe wildfires on the Outer Cape, Crary said, were a pair of 1938 fires in Truro that followed a dry winter and a hurricane the previous fall that had left dead vegetation for fuel. According to a 1995 NPS report on fire suppression by Peter Dunwiddie and Mark Adams, those fires burned a combined 4,500 acres — a quarter of the town, though the report mentions no buildings.

As the climate changes, fire-prone conditions are likely to worsen here. According to the National Seashore’s Climate Futures Summary published this year, Cape Cod will receive more precipitation under most climate scenarios, but it will likely come as periodic extreme rainfall between stretches of drought, like what we have seen this fall. Paired with higher temperatures, this makes less water available for plants, dries out vegetation, and increases wildfire risk.

Climate change is doing things we find hard to imagine, Vaillant said.

Crary agreed. “A lot of people say, it’s not if there’s a fire, it’s when there’s a fire.”