Feature films today are in transition: the one-time all-American mass medium of theatrical moviegoing is rapidly becoming a niche activity. Most people stream movies at home or on their devices. Covid and talent-guild strikes gave the industry a one-two punch. As a result, the audience for the Oscars has drastically diminished.
The usual fodder for awards, the modestly budgeted high-quality studio picture, has all but disappeared. Still, the notion of a respectable middlebrow hit persists among boutique distributors: this year, it’s aptly represented by Conclave, a solidly crafted drama about cardinals in the Vatican picking a new pope and the political intrigue that ensues.
Oscar handicapping has changed quite a bit as well. Ever since the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences decided to do something about its aging and largely white membership of screen professionals, things have changed dramatically. Membership has more than doubled, to about 10,000, and it’s younger and more inclusive of women, people of color, and indie artists. Not surprisingly, many of the usual patterns in Academy voting are gone, and the winners have become far less predictable.
The Oscars prefer to uplift audiences rather than merely provoke them. Despair must lead to redemption. Demonstrable talent is rewarded more than subtlety and restraint. Following that logic, substitute the word “most” for “best” in every category. Most cinematography means lots of pretty pictures; most acting means a transformative performance — a disabled character, perhaps, or one with a different sexual identity.
More than ever, the Academy sides with the critics, and tastes have definitely grown up. Awards given by the talent guilds are often good predictors, such as the Directors Guild, the Writers Guild, the Screen Actors Guild, and the Producers Guild, because so many guild members also vote in the Academy. The Golden Globes remain an indicator, as does the box office, especially as a measure of visibility. Massive box office can be a downside, however, since Oscar voters are looking for quality, not popularity.
The 97th Academy Awards will be broadcast on Sunday, March 2 at 7 p.m. on ABC and streamed on Hulu. The movies that are nominated were released in 2024. Anticipation is centered on Best Picture and the acting awards.
Emilia Pérez, a musical in Spanish about a trans woman who was a Mexican cartel boss, was purchased by Netflix after its premiere at the Cannes Film Festival. Nominated in 13 Oscar categories, it was widely considered the front-runner for most awards last fall. Then scandal erupted. Bigoted tweets by Spanish trans actress Karla Sofía Gascón, who plays the movie’s title role, were dug up on the subject of Muslims, George Floyd, and diversity at the Oscars. There were complaints that the movie was shot in France by a French director (Jacques Audiard), and that the Mexican accents of the cast, largely American and European, were laughable. Objections to the movie’s treatment of the trans lead were published in the queer press. Netflix went into damage control mode, and the movie’s prospects sank.
Then The Brutalist, a three-and-a-half-hour epic about a Holocaust-surviving architect, won at the Golden Globes, setting up an odd rivalry between it and Emilia Pérez. Both films are largely art-house fare and unlikely Oscar favorites, but the more traditional contenders had little momentum: the aforementioned Conclave; A Complete Unknown, about Bob Dylan’s early days as a folk hero; and Wicked, an adaptation of the smash Broadway musical and backstory to The Wizard of Oz.
Finally, the guild awards came out. Sean Baker’s Anora, a neo-screwball comedy about the whirlwind romance between a stripper and a Russian oligarch’s son in Brooklyn, swept the directors, producers, and writers prizes. As we go to press, Anora is the odds-on favorite for Best Picture Oscar, and Baker for Best Director and Best Original Screenplay as well. But they’re not shoo-ins.
The Brutalist and director Brady Corbet can’t be counted out, and it’s certainly possible that one of the more traditional choices might score an upset. Conclave, for example, won Best Ensemble at the SAG awards, the actors’ equivalent of Best Picture. The biggest drawbacks for Wicked are its huge grosses and the fact that it’s only the first half of the musical, with part two, Wicked: For Good, set for release this November.
There are similar uncertainties in the acting categories. The only exception is Kieran Culkin for Best Supporting Actor in A Real Pain; he won the SAG award last Sunday as well as the Golden Globe and critics’ awards. His win is pretty much guaranteed.
Demi Moore has momentum after her win at the Golden Globes and then from SAG for The Substance, an outrageous sci-fi horror movie about an aging star seeking eternal youth. A Best Actress Oscar would be a sentimental comeback for Moore, who has never been taken seriously for her work. But the fortunes of Mikey Madison, the lap-dancing star of Anora, have been steadily rising, including a win at the BAFTAs, the British equivalent of the Oscars.
Adrien Brody, in The Brutalist, is favored for Best Actor. His performance carries an epic film, and he’s a former winner for The Pianist, which gives him added credibility. He has serious competition, however, in young Timothée Chalamet, whose Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown wowed the critics and earned him a SAG award on Sunday.
For Best Supporting Actress, Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Peréz is the likely winner, scandals notwithstanding, though Ariana Grande in Wicked has been gaining strength. Saldaña’s role is really a lead; she was entered into the supporting race to secure her win. It’s an old (and tired) ploy.
With no clear front-runner among the Best Picture nominees, the tech awards are also likely to be a jumble: voters tend to group their votes for an overwhelming favorite together, creating a sweep. Even so, The Brutalist is a sure bet for its astounding Best Original Score, and The Wild Robot is the likely winner for Best Animated Feature.
The biggest unknown is the program’s ratings. The Oscars used to be the most watched show of the year when I was a child. But with movies as rarified as Anora and The Brutalist as front-runners, it’s hard to lure a mass audience. Barbie and Oppenheimer gave the Oscars a bump last year. In 2025, Wicked’s vast pool of passionate fans doesn’t have the same energy.
