PROVINCETOWN — All four Outer Cape towns have recently seen a decrease in the state’s subsidized housing inventory, or SHI, which measures how much of a community’s year-round residential housing is affordable.
The official target is for each town to have 10 percent of its housing be affordable for people making less than 80 percent of the median household income there. Some towns, including Amherst, Cambridge, and Chelsea, have exceeded that target; about three dozen very small towns have no affordable units at all.
On the Outer Cape, Provincetown was close to the target, with 9.7 percent in 2020. Truro was at 2.3 percent in 2020, Wellfleet at 2.5 percent, and Eastham at 4.5 percent.
Those percentages all fell when the 2023 numbers were released. Provincetown’s affordable inventory now stands at 8 percent of the total; Truro is at 1.9 percent; Wellfleet at 2.0 percent, and Eastham at 3.7 percent.
According to Laura Shufelt, director of community assistance at the Mass. Housing Partnership, this is because new market-rate housing has been coming online at a faster clip than new affordable housing, causing the percentage of affordable units to decline even when their absolute number hasn’t changed much.
“Any increase in the bottom line without an equal increase in affordable housing will not keep the SHI number stable,” Shufelt said. “You have to be willing to do big projects that are all affordable in order to make any real progress. You have to outpace the market development.”
When Restrictions Expire
The decline is not only about the faster pace of market-rate development. A few affordable units have actually been lost.
According to Eastham Housing Coordinator Rachel Butler, the inventory of affordable units there went from 119 in 2020 to 116 in 2023, largely because deed restrictions on five units at Gull Cottages expired.
Provincetown has also seen a handful of affordability restrictions expire over the years, according to Deputy Housing Director Mackenzie Perry. Before the early 2010s, many affordability restrictions lasted only 40 years, Perry said, whereas most new restrictions are in force “in perpetuity.”
Provincetown’s current SHI inventory includes 66 units with deed restrictions that will expire, with the soonest coming due in 2031 and the restrictions at 40A Nelson Ave. lasting until 2103.
Many of those properties are owned by the Provincetown Housing Authority or nonprofits such as the Community Development Partnership and are unlikely to become market-rate units when their restrictions expire.
Five units at 27A Conwell St. are owned by Community Housing Resource, a for-profit company, and have restrictions that will expire in 2037, however.
One affordable ownership unit in Truro had a deed restriction that expired in 2019, according to that town’s 2020 SHI list. The rest of Truro’s units are deed-restricted in perpetuity. Ninety-five of Eastham’s 116 units have perpetual deed restrictions.
Wellfleet did not provide the Independent with a list of its affordable units, but according to housing authority chair Elaine McIlroy, the falling percentage of affordable units there was not caused by expiring deed restrictions.
Data Issues
According to Shufelt, the state’s SHI formula helps explain recent changes.
The 2023 SHI is the first to use measurements from the 2020 U.S. Census as the baseline count for “occupied housing units,” Shufelt said. A lot of people moved into vacation homes during the pandemic. Provincetown’s “occupied housing” number increased by 380 units in the 2020 census; Truro’s went up by 243, Wellfleet’s by 419, and Eastham’s by 524.
These occupancy changes affected the SHI numbers because the state does not count seasonally occupied homes — the majority of residential properties in all four Outer Cape towns — when calculating what percentage of a town’s homes should be affordable.
The U.S. Census considers homes reserved “for seasonal, recreational, or occasional use” to be “vacant,” and the state excludes vacant homes from its SHI formula.
In fact, according to the formula, every time a year-round home becomes a seasonal or vacation home, the number of affordable units that town needs to reach the state’s affordability target goes down.
The SHI formula was defined in 1968 and does not represent the housing needs of resort communities well, Shufelt told the Independent last year.
In some communities, the SHI tally also counts many units that are not actually affordable but were built through the state’s Chapter 40B, which allows developments that are at least 25 percent affordable to access a special path through permitting.
Every rental unit in a 40B development counts toward a town’s SHI percentage, even the market-rate rentals, according to Jennifer Gilbert, executive director of the nonprofit Mass. Housing Navigator.
“We have to get more clear on what it means when we say ‘affordable,’ ” Gilbert told the Independent. “When people look to see if we have our 10 percent, they aren’t really looking at what is being counted.”
The SHI was invented to decide a relatively narrow question, according to Shufelt: who will decide on appeals to 40B development permits. Those permits are contested in Land Court if a town has an SHI above 10 percent and in a state Housing Appeals Committee if it is below 10 percent, according to the 1968 law.
One consequence of focusing too heavily on SHI, Gilbert said, is that a town may lose its path for streamlined 40B appeals before it has actually addressed its housing challenges.
“There is a difference between achieving your 10 percent goal and creating enough affordable housing for your community,” Gilbert said.