With the books closed on 2022 and town clerks across the Cape working on their annual town reports, the Independent took a look at the birth and death records for each town to see what they say about our communities. A sobering — but perhaps not surprising — trend appeared: the gap between the number of births and the number of deaths in each town continues to widen.
An aggregate of the four Outer Cape towns — Provincetown, Truro, Wellfleet, and Eastham — showed a total of 55 births and 179 deaths in 2022. That amounts to 3.2 deaths for every birth.
This ratio has been increasing for more than 20 years. Data from the state’s Registry of Vital Records show that, across all four towns, an average of two deaths for every birth in the years from 2000 to 2010 has grown to an average of three deaths for every birth since then.
The numbers for individual years, and especially in individual towns, jump around a lot, simply because the populations of these towns are small. To better describe the trend lines, the Independent averaged the numbers from the years from 2000 to 2010 and compared the results to the years 2011 to 2022 averaged together.
There were 159.5 deaths per year in the four towns in the 2000s, which grew to an average of 186 deaths per year since then — an increase of 16 percent.
Births have gone in the opposite direction. An average of 80 births per year in the 2000s shrunk to an average of 63 births per year since 2011 — a 21-percent decrease.
This is despite an overall rise in the year-round population of the Outer Cape. The 12,651 total residents of the four towns in 2010 jumped to 15,436 in 2020 — a 22-percent increase in just a decade, according to U.S. Census data.
What do these numbers mean?
They verify what most already suspected. The growing population of the Outer Cape is also an aging population.
Provincetown
Provincetown saw a total of 53 deaths and 7 births in 2022, according to Assistant Town Clerk Ana Ruiz. That is a ratio of 7.6 deaths for every birth that year.
The average ratio of deaths to births has gone up only slightly, however, from 4.1 deaths for every birth from 2000 to 2010, to 4.4 deaths for every birth since then. That is partly because, uniquely among the Outer Cape towns, the death rate in Provincetown actually declined very slightly from the 2000s to the 2010s. The birth rate fell further, however, from an average of 14 babies per year to 11.
Provincetown’s overall population increased by 25 percent from 2010 to 2020, according to the U.S. Census, which counted 3,664 residents in 2020.
“A lot of people are second-home owners who decided to move here during Covid, and a lot of them are retired,” Ruiz told the Independent. “That’s what we’ve become — a retiree town.
“Young people have no opportunities here,” Ruiz said.
Truro
Truro recorded 29 deaths and 12 births in 2022, said Town Clerk Kaci Fullerton. That is 2.4 deaths for every birth.
This ratio almost doubled over the last 22 years, jumping from 1.7 deaths for every birth in the 2000s to 2.9 deaths for every birth in the years since then.
An average of 21 deaths per year jumped to 27, while an average of 12 births per year fell to 9.
Truro’s overall population grew 23 percent in the last decade, with the U.S. Census counting 2,454 people in town in 2020.
Wellfleet
Town Clerk Jennifer Congel reported 31 deaths and 14 births in 2022, which is 2.2 deaths for every birth.
This ratio also increased from 1.7 deaths per birth from 2000-2010 to 2.4 deaths for every birth since then.
An average of 31 deaths per year grew to 37, and an average of 19 births per year fell to 17.
The overall population increased 30 percent in a decade, with 3,566 people here in 2020.
“Deaths outpace births here,” Congel said. “It’s sad to me. But until we can find enough affordable housing to have more young people move here, I’m not sure how we can flip that around.”
Eastham
In Eastham, there were 66 deaths and 22 births in 2022, according to Assistant Town Clerk Linda Sassi. This is exactly three deaths for every birth.
The ratio grew from 1.9 deaths for every birth in the 2000s to 3.2 deaths for every birth from 2011-2022.
An average of 60 deaths per year leapt to an average of 77, and an average of 34 births per year fell to an average of 26.
Meanwhile, the town’s population rose 16 percent, to 5,752 people in 2020.
“Young families and the elderly are getting pushed out, and new people are coming to buy houses part-time,” Town Clerk Cindy Nicholson said. “It creates a big hole. The community is changing.”
