When Barbie and Oppenheimer, two big-budget Hollywood films, opened in theaters on the same day, July 21, 2023, they merged into a cultural phenomenon known by the portmanteau “Barbenheimer.” Finally, after the pandemic crushed theatergoing, Barbenheimer heralded the return of big-screen movies to the center of American consciousness.
They weren’t the first megahits to reach screens since the Covid shutdown, when worldwide box office collapsed from $11 billion in 2019 to $2 billion in 2020. In 2022, Avatar: The Way of Water and Top Gun: Maverick made billions, but they were both fairly predictable sequels that served to reassure audiences the movies weren’t quite dead yet.
Barbie and Oppenheimer weren’t sequels, per se, but they still had elements that could be “pre-sold” to audiences, in the tradition of Hollywood juggernauts. Barbie is based on the iconic Mattel doll that has become a collectible staple of postwar generations, shaping — and, many have complained, thwarting — the self-image of millions of young girls. Oppenheimer is a movie about the politics and strategy of war as seen through the prism of Christopher Nolan’s imagination. Audiences knew that Nolan, who has a wide following post–Dark Knight, wouldn’t just be presenting a cerebral biopic about a brilliant physicist and the development of the atomic bomb. Instead, they looked forward to a mind-bending meditation on the dawn of the nuclear age.
Of the two films, Barbie was the one that actually exploded onto the screen. Greta Gerwig, who directed (and cowrote the script with Noah Baumbach), brought her quirky millennial feminist touch (evidenced in Little Women, Lady Bird, and Frances Ha) to the material and managed to connect to several generations of women. While telling a Pinocchio-like story of Barbie the doll becoming a real woman, Gerwig navigated issues of body shaming, racial and ethnic diversity, and repressive norms with aplomb and delivered a solid (though less than stunning) entertainment that charmed most everybody and moved many.
Oppenheimer, on the other hand, was a serious three-hour-long historical epic about a scientist’s drive to untap the terrifying power of nature and his ethical struggle over the result. J. Robert Oppenheimer was a wealthy, Harvard-educated New York Jew who got his doctorate in physics in Germany and was a full professor at U.C. Berkeley at the age of 32. He was tapped during World War II to lead the Los Alamos Laboratory in the race to develop an atomic bomb before Nazi Germany did — and he succeeded. But once the war ended, his resistance to the arms race with the U.S.S.R. led to his eventual downfall and accusations that he was a Soviet spy.
It’s a grand life story, and Nolan makes it work on multiple levels. Without getting too deep into the theoretical physics, he focuses on the people and politics that lifted Oppenheimer up and pulled him down. It’s told without Nolan’s usual visual razzle-dazzle but nonetheless moves along briskly and efficiently, building up to a triumphal Trinity test and the despairing dénouement of the Cold War. Irish actor Cillian Murphy makes a riveting Oppenheimer, and he gets surefooted support from Emily Blunt as his wife, Matt Damon as an enabling general, and Robert Downey Jr. as a vengeful pol.
Barbie opened big and generated enormous press and word of mouth. Audiences adored Margot Robbie as Barbie (she also served as a producer), Ryan Gosling as Ken, and America Ferrara as Gloria. The movie made $1.4 billion at the box office worldwide — almost half of that here in the U.S. It was the first such franchise to be created by women and targeted to them.
Oppenheimer, which Nolan made sure was featured on massive IMAX screens, started slower, but ended up grossing $957 million worldwide. It didn’t have the passionate reception that Barbie had, but it got glowing reviews. It was clearly the less pop, more prestigious half of Barbenheimer.
Which brings us to award season. Oppenheimer has been faring a lot better in getting nominations and awards, and the snub of Barbie director Gerwig and star Robbie at the Oscars made headlines. Otherwise, Barbie did well with eight nominations, including best picture, Gerwig and Baumbach for their screenplay, and Gosling and Ferrara for supporting actor and actress, respectively. Despite this, the movie seems likely to win only for costume design and for original song — Billie Eilish’s “What Was I Made For?”
It’s not really due to sexism, as many suspected, but to a traditional preference at the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences for serious drama over popular confections. Over the last decade, and after years of pressure, the Academy has expanded (even doubled) its voting membership with more diverse, younger, and more international professionals. As a result, more women and people of color have been getting nominated. But the mainstream standards for excellence largely prevail.
Movies that are heart-wrenching and uplifting are preferred over ones that are merely exciting; performances that are transformative are preferred over those that are subtle; productions that show elaborate craft are preferred over those that are stark and simplified.
As a result, Oppenheimer is the overwhelming favorite to win best picture and Nolan best director. It’s likely to be a bit of an Oppenheimer sweep on Oscar night, with wins for cinematography, film editing, and sound, and Downey is a shoo-in for supporting actor. Production design is more of a toss-up, with some prognosticators leaning toward Barbie over Oppenheimer. But the overall pattern is clear. Oppenheimer is like a New Age version of a David Lean epic — it’s Oscar bait.
Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon is in a tight race with Emma Stone in Poor Things for best actress. I hope Gladstone wins and makes history as the first Native American actor ever to receive an Oscar. Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer is favored over Paul Giamatti, a close second, in The Holdovers. At last Saturday’s Screen Actors Guild awards, Gladstone and Murphy prevailed. With actors outnumbering other groups in the Academy, SAG is a strong indicator of the Oscar vote.
Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers is a lock in the supporting actress category. But come Sunday, March 10, when the Oscars will be broadcast live on ABC, it looks to be an Oppenheimer night. Hollywood may be diminished after a devasting pandemic and debilitating strikes, and movie audiences may never go to theaters like they once did, but this year, at least, the awards will have some weight.
